GUJARAT AMBUJA EXPORTS LTD - Quantamental Equity Research

Quantamental Equity Research on GUJARAT AMBUJA EXPORTS LTD | Release: 19 Feb 2019 16:38:01 UTC+05:30 | Reporting Currency: INR | Trading Currency: INR | Exchange:NSE/BSE NSE CODE:GAEL and BSE CODE:524226
Last Close:  INR 208.1
Fair Value:  INR 279.85
Est. Price by Mar 19:  INR 259.35
Market Capitalization (INR Crs):  2386.23
Industry:  Other Agricultural Products
Rating:  STRONG BUY
Upside:  34%
Company Profile
Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited offers Raw and Refine Soya Oil, Maize Starch, Soya De-Oiled Cake and Liquid Glucose. The Company's segments include Cotton Yarn, Maize Processing, Agro Processing, Power and Others.
Growth Per Share
Particulars 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year  
Revenue % 1% 50% 60%  
EBIT % 13% 122% 49%  
Earnings % 13% 114% 59%  
Book Value %  20% 24% 56%  
Stock Total Return %  112% 562% 1013%  
Share holding pattern
Particulars %age   
(A) Promoter & Promoter Group 63.76  
(B) FII/FPI 1.50  
(C) DII/Insurance Companies 0.79  
(D) Public holding < 2 lakhs of cap. 22.40  
(E) Others 11.55  
Grand Total 100.00  
Fundamentals (Historical and Estimated)
Particulars Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18  Mar-19 E   Mar-20 E   Mar-21 E   Mar-22 E   Mar-23 E   
Price 20 34 22 24 32 41 47 129 272 259 294 336 374 402  
Return on Equity 14% 19% 9% 17% 15% 10% 11% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14%  
Price to Earning  4.5 5.0 6.1 3.0 3.9 6.8 6.5 9.3 17.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8  
EVTI 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8  
EVTIFM 4.5 5.0 6.1 3.0 3.9 6.8 6.5 9.3 17.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8  
Price to Book Value 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.7 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0  
Debt to Equity  0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0  
Dividend Yield 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%  
Cash Flow to Firm -23% 5% -20% 53% -20% 19% 5% -2% 2% 7% 10% 11% 11% 12%  
Detailed Estimates
Title Mar-18 Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
Sales       3,364.43       3,735.98       4,092.11       4,420.37       4,708.17       4,943.58  
EBITDA          326.39          429.51          470.46          508.20          541.28          568.35  
EBIT          250.10          344.80          385.07          431.57          472.52          506.63  
PBT          232.16          326.86          370.13          423.01          471.21          506.63  
NPAT          179.88          215.76          244.32          279.23          311.04          334.43  
Price to Earning             17.36            13.78            13.78            13.78            13.78            13.78  
Price to Book Value              3.05              2.43              2.31              2.24              2.13              1.98  
Debt to Equity               0.63              0.44              0.21              0.03                 -                   -    
Return on Equity              0.18              0.18              0.17              0.16              0.15              0.14  
Enterprise Value to Total Income (EVTI)              1.10              0.93              0.88              0.87              0.85              0.81  
Enterprise Value to Total Income to Firm Margin(EVTIFM)            20.18            16.14            15.13            14.31            13.57            12.66  
Price or Est. Share Prices          272.38          259.35          293.70          335.70          373.95          402.10  
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
Title Mar-19 E Mar-20 E Mar-21 E Mar-22 E Mar-23 E  
PBT          326.86          370.13          423.01          471.21          506.63  
Interest            17.94            14.94              8.56              1.31                 -    
Depreciation            84.72            85.38            76.63            68.77            61.72  
Cash Flow Before Tax          429.51          470.46          508.20          541.28          568.35  
Tax Rate            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99            33.99  
Cash Flow After Tax          283.52          310.55          335.46          357.30          375.17  
Terminal Cash Flow                                                                                    -         4,191.50  
Total Cash Flow          283.52          310.55          335.46          357.30       4,566.66  
Present Value of Cash Flow       3,208.77  
Debt                 -    
Value of Equity       3,208.77  
Fair Value Per Share          279.85  
Equity            2,386
Debt               647
Beta Take from Reuters 1.48
Risk Free Rate Prevailing Yield in India 7%
Market Risk Premium Assuming 8.82% premium for Equity Investments 7%
Interest Paid                 18
Tax Benefit                   4
Interest Net of Tax                 14
Debt               647
Cost of Debt 2%
Cost of Equity 18%
Debt Weight 21%
Equity Weight 79%
WACC 15%
Cash Flow of Mar-23 E          375.17
Growth 5.6%
Present Value of Terminal Cashflow       4,191.50
Peer Comparision
# Name CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr.  B.V. Rs. Annualized ROE % ROCE % Latest EVTI Latest EVTIFM CMP / BV P/E Debt / Eq Div Yld % Growth Rate R % SGR % Ann Total Income Unpledged Prom Hold % PQEIOI QoQ Sales % Qtr Sales Var % QoQ Profits % Qtr Profit Var % Graham's Number Rs.
   1  Guj. Ambuja Exp           208.10            2,386            95.61            40.78            15.80              0.63              9.09              2.18              9.72              0.63              0.38            38.70            30.99            4,718            63.76                 30            51.68            15.74          142.79            27.31          214.66
   2  BCL Industries             93.35               163            94.79            44.72            12.70              0.35              7.27              0.98              4.16              1.69                 -              44.72            51.68               981            60.24                 18            20.05              4.39          -34.05          137.45          223.54
   3  Agro Tech Foods.           574.85            1,401          143.68            14.80            14.78              1.56            38.86              4.00            42.35                 -                0.43            11.95            12.08               867            51.77               162              2.12              0.39              9.80            10.41          213.88
   4  AVT Natural Prod             22.05               336            16.30            10.93            12.85              0.95            13.52              1.35            16.75              0.09              1.81              7.82              7.99               331            74.36                 73              8.09            20.60            32.68            18.68            21.92
   5  Kriti Nutrients             31.65               159            12.46            50.01            38.83              0.38              8.70              2.54              8.54              0.55              0.57            47.16            65.49               485            66.06                 31              5.08            -5.97            27.32          -19.52            32.25
   6  Gokul Refoils             11.70               154            20.71                 -                7.20                 -                   -                0.56              9.61              1.13                 -                   -                   -                   -              74.47                 -                   -                   -                   -                   -              17.93

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